Get the top HN stories in your inbox every day.
kilroy123
uyzstvqs
> thanks to China
We just have to be careful there. My fellow Europeans here will remember what resulted out of depending on an adversary for energy, in our case Russian NG. We don't want another energy crisis as the result of geopolitical tensions.
We shouldn't import foreign DRM, our critical infrastructure should not utilize foreign-hosted or proprietary IoT, and we should invest in local manufacturing utilizing automation.
energy123
Stock vs flow: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_and_flow
Solar panels and batteries are a stock. Oil is a flow. This leads to a very different dependency situation.
If you're concerned about energy sovereignty, just buy more solar panels now. If you're still concerned, buy even more. Keep buying them until you're not concerned anymore.
apexalpha
Thanks for that link, this says what I've had to explain so many times.
thelastgallon
Yes, scare mongering for panels and batteries which last 25 - 50 years or forever with zero input fuel needed after the install. Yay to fossil fuels which are needed continuously, billions of tons per year.
Nobody can prevent your country/region from developing own solar or battery supply chains. Alternatively, buy from other countries that are not China for a little bit more.
leonidasrup
https://www.auxsol.com/blog/how-long-do-solar-inverters-last...
" String Inverters: The most common residential choice, lasting 10–15 years on average and boasting impressive cost-performance.
Microinverters: Mounted directly on individual solar panels, these often reach 25 years—nearly matching the lifespan of solar panels themselves. Industry data highlights lower failure rates for microinverters, though they come with a higher upfront cost.
Central Inverters: Typically used for larger residential or commercial and industrial systems, central inverters last 10–15 years. "
Without an solar invertor a solar panel is just a black panel.
https://digitalpower.huawei.com/en/blogs/how-long-will-a-lit...
"Generally, lithium-ion batteries used in ordinary consumer electronics have a cycle life of about 300 to 500 times. After reaching this number of cycles, the battery capacity will drop to about 80% of its initial capacity. For example, if the lithium-ion battery of a smartphone undergoes a full charge-discharge cycle every day, its performance will significantly decline after approximately 1 to 1.5 years.
In contrast, lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, due to advancements in technology and craftsmanship, can achieve 1,000 to 2,000 charge-discharge cycles, with a correspondingly longer service life of 5 to 8 years or even more. Lithium-ion batteries for data centers have an even longer cycle life of approximately 5,000 cycles and a service life of up to 10 years, meaning there’s no need to replace batteries during the UPS’s full lifecycle. However, these are only theoretical estimates, and the actual service life is affected by various factors."
dzonga
> resulted out of depending on an adversary
being from a 3rd world country and having lived in Europe & the US.
you quickly learn there's nothing called an adversary when adopting technology.
you adopt what works - ruminating about where something comes from, is a luxury.
then after you can either work towards self-sufficiency or keep being vulnerable.
Europe has been kept in this loop of talking about problems while not solving them.
the US - knowin' about the problems, but actively ignoring them due to politics.
FooBarWidget
Heck China has been in this exact predicament for decades. They imported all the foreign technology they can, while simultaneously learning all they can to make things themselves and stop being dependent. After 50 years it's finally paying off. They could not be where they are now had they blocked all foreign imports from the start.
Weryj
Not quite the same, a solar panel installed doesn’t disappear if China changes their stance.
JumpCrisscross
> solar panel installed doesn’t disappear if China changes their stance
Most countries have days to, at most, months of imports of oil in reserve. In contrast, a panel embargo wouldn’t have disastrous effects for years. But reliance it is the same. If you’re dependent on Chinese panels, China can cap your energy growth at whim. The degradation will be slow thereafter, but present nevertheless.
Using foreign panels for anything other than bootstrapping domestic or allied production would be the EU repeating its follies first with Russia and then with American LNG.
mcbishop
But there is some valid concern around internet-connected PV / battery power electronics getting bricked remotely.
gostsamo
It can stop working properly if the chinese panel is encryption locked to a chinese cloud which is the case with many residential installations.
fragmede
Not the panel itself, but the firmware of the solar panel charge controller and inverter that's connected to the Internet because there's an app to monitor the system. I wouldn't bet that there aren't remote kill switches deep inside that firmware.
exabrial
In a snap of a finger, Big C will absolutely cut your fingers off and the technology you love off in order to fuel its imperialistic whims. Anything bordering the South China Sea is in their mind, already theirs, you know because of ancient empires or something.
I'm happy the OP was able to take advantage of the current prices, cheap technology, and the amicable perfidious relationship. I would avoid anything internet-connected for good reason, and of course, burying anything in our infrastructure.
deaux
> We shouldn't import foreign DRM, our critical infrastructure should not utilize foreign-hosted or proprietary IoT, and we should invest in local manufacturing utilizing automation.
How have you still not learned? By god Europe's in an awful place if you still don't get it.
You first import them en masse. You reverse engineer, learn how to do everything. Then you slowly invest in local manufacturing. China has shown you the way.
cabnm
Germany was a pioneer in manufacturing solar panels ans has let China take over. Their Maglev train is also only running in China.
German industry does not want to pay anyone, imports cheap foreigners for tasks that have to be done in Germany and outsources the rest.
api
China copied the US. Now the US should copy China. At least with some things, like industrial policy.
vintermann
This really seems like straining at a gnat and swallowing a camel.
Sure, it's great to be independent when you can, but of all the groups you depend on, and all the ways you depend on them, this doesn't rank high!
apexalpha
This is _completely_ different.
If Russia stops gas deliveries you are immediately without energy.
If China stops exporting your PV and battery while just continue to work for 20 years.
apexalpha
After the 2022 energy crisis we renovated our house and moved fully electric. Heatpump, induction cooking, battery, etc...
It was already a easy financial case to be made, let alone the extra comfort. But now it's a no-brainer. I get €100 back every month now, while others around me pay up to €300 per month.
The way the Chinese manufacturers are scaling production of batteries is something to behold.
In 2022 I bought 20kWh + 10kW inverter + installation for €7500.
My buddy just ordered a 54kWh battery for €6500... And it's not slowing down, they're only gaining speed with the introduction of over cheaper materials like Sodium batteries.
The Chinese are the only reason I remain somewhat optimistic of our chances of combatting climate change.
Europe is too lazy, the US just gave up, really.
dcuthbertson
I'm curious as to how low a temperature your heat pump will operate. I live in New England and replaced a whole-house air conditioner with a heat pump, but the heat pump works only to 35F. Much colder than that, and an auxiliary electric heater kicked in. The first Winter cost me about $800 over my gas-fired forced hot water heating system. I had the contractor disable the electric heat in the Spring and rewire the thermostats to start the (high efficiency) furnace when the outdoor temp got too low.
apexalpha
Mine can go until -25c they say: https://www.nibe.eu/en-eu/products/heat-pumps/air-water-heat...
We don't ever get those temps so I should be fine.
My biggest issue is not cold but mist. I live near a river in a valley and have underestimated how much mist hurts performance around ~1c outside.
It needs to defrost often, because of the high moisture content in the outside air where I live.
But it also has a normal, resistive heating 9kW backup. But for financial reasons this is considered 'emergency only'.
zihotki
Keep in mind that heat pumps have a limit how much they can pump (it also depends on temp., there is less heat in 35F air). If your house is not well insulated, at a lower temperature it would be loosing more energy and eventually it would reach the threshold where it's performance is not enough to keep up.
anotherhue
That depends on the refrigerant, the new Mitsubishis are effective at that and lower temperatures.
testing22321
We got a heat pump in BC Canada, it’s rated down to -30C.
We also got solar, our entire power bill (all heating, cooking, lights, computers, etc) is $500 for the year. Best decision ever.
BadBadJellyBean
I love my induction stove. You will pry it out of my cold dead hands. I wish I could do all the other things you did, but rent ...
But induction is a game changer. It makes everything else (including gas) seem weak. I can make my steel wok glow red within 20 seconds.
apexalpha
And it's so much easier to clean too. And, when you're not cooking it's flat so you can just use as counter space.
And then there's the flammable gas in your house. I had it for 20 years, it works fine when installed properly but the risk is never 0.
zihotki
Would you mind sharing some details on the 54kWh battery for €6500? I'm looking for one and this sounds like a crazy deal.
apexalpha
It's this one: https://balansenergie.nl/
They're a startup trying to get to the minimum amount of MWh to become a 'virtual power plant'.
It seems it's 48kwh, apologies. And it seems the cheapest batch is already sold out: it's now €6500.
insane_dreamer
The US didn't give up. Trump purposely killed the funding for clean energy because Big Oil donated $75-100M to get him elected.
correction: they may have spent $450M: https://climatepower.us/news/new-report-oil-and-gas-industry...
apexalpha
Exactly. And it wasn't a secret either. He shouted 'drill baby drill' at any opportunity.
And then the Americans elected him in a landslide.
They gave up.
insane_dreamer
The US didn't give up. Trump purposely killed the funding for clean energy because Big Oil donated $75-100M to get him elected.
grunder_advice
I've held green tech stocks in the past but never made a dime out of them. There was a pattern to them. First there'd be demand, then the factories in China will turn on and suddenly there's a glut so the price goes back down. Then the factories would shut off again and the cycle repeats. I wonder if that's still happening.
adjejmxbdjdn
Green stocks in the west will not be successful because of green politics in the West.
Green tech is a fledgling industry trying to challenge a dominant, well established one.
Any such industry needs basic government support, but at the very least, predictable government regulation.
Unfortunately not only have we not seen support, we’ve seen opposition from the government, and the stability has been laughable.
Meanwhile that’s exactly what the Chinese government is providing which means the entire industry (outside of a now small section of wind power in Europe, which preceded green tech becoming political football) is Chinese, so you and I and pretty much everyone outside China has been cut off from benefitting from it as an investment and can only benefit from it as consumers.
There is hope that the Europeans might finally get their act together here, but hoping the Europeans may get their act together in investment, industrial and financial policy has so far been a fool’s game. There’s little to no hope for America getting its act together for at least a few years in the green tech supply chain, although the actual green tech consumption seems to be growing even with the political headwinds.
xiphias2
AI is getting a multitrillion valuation business, and depends on energy in US a lot, so I can imagine that all kind of energy lobby will get very strong.
Of course I believe oil lobby doesn't want competition, so it will be a rich guys' fight.
FridayoLeary
You are projecting a lot. Europe is obsessed with green energy. As soon as we in the UK start seeing any tangible benefits of green energy i.e, lower prices which is the main thing anyone who isn't an upper middle class liberal cares about then i'll be on here singing it's praises.
Green energy is challenging because it has many times less density then every other form out there, among other reasons.
dgellow
> Europe is obsessed with green energy
I wish that was true…
WJW
Interestingly, oil investors experience this boom-and-bust cycle too: every time oil prices spike, a bunch of extra companies flood into the market to drill some wells or weld pipelines or build tankers or whatever. All the extra supply crashes the price and most of the new companies go bankrupt or get consolidated into the big energy firms. This slowly brings spare capacity back down, so the next time there's a disruption the cycle kicks off for its next round.
smallerize
That used to be true, but things have really settled down. Notice the lack of rushing to start more fracking or refining projects during this crisis.
margalabargala
I don't know that I would hear about it. How would I know?
bigthymer
Typical commodity cycle...most commodities work like this
giantg2
Are there any renewable energy companies manufacturing in the US? Seems like all are downstream of that, just providing installation and management. Actual energy security should include some meaningful domestic production.
deaux
Panasonic has a big US battery plant.
firebot
T1 Energy in Texas is producing solar panels and systems including batteries at gigawatt(about 3 currently, but they're expanding) scales.
Illuminate USA in Ohio claims to be going even bigger than T1. Over 5 GW/year (10 million panels). But they just seem to manufacture panels and not batteries.
Some others include: Tesla, Qcells, Mission Solar, First Solar, Ambri, Enphase, Ørsted, TotalEnergies, and Generac.
Not all are fully vertically integrated and many still rely on global supply chains...
micromacrofoot
not at a meaningful scale, and the environment for this under the current administration is increasingly hostile so it won't be for years
Aboutplants
There is a massive opportunity for the US in the next 5-10 years to take advantage of a Slow Adopter advantage by only now truly taking advantage of the technological and cost advances made in the past 5-10 years.
Now that the public has heard the term “Trillions” whether it relates to defense spending or company valuations, that term is now somewhat more meaningless for grand scale ideas. Couple that with rising energy costs and you have a potential public appetite for a massive push for renewable and storage of all kinds.
dgellow
The US president and administration are very vocally against it. And are responsible for the ongoing crisis, with no sign of change
Throaway199999
The US president will be gone and the Republicans will have to replace him. I dont know if Vance is up to the task of being "The New Trump."
dgellow
But whoever takes his place will inherit a party that is very strongly against anything renewable and is financed by the fossil fuel industry
amanaplanacanal
Probably not. The man has no charisma. Don Jr seems like an idiot. Possibly Rubio, which would definitely be an upgrade from Trump. Or someone who isn't on anybody's radar yet.
I suspect people are going to be pretty sick of Republicans after another two years of this idiocy.
balderdash
If anyone was serious about energy security in North America or Europe they would be building polysilicon, ingot, and wafer capacity.
derektank
The world’s dependence on China for solar panel manufacturing is troubling, but unlike oil, once the generating facility is installed you’re no longer dependent on your supplier (at least for a decade or two). I would be more concerned about batteries if I was in government
intrasight
Our dependence on China for cars is even scarier.
throw3433
India has huge surplus capcity of solar panels. Sadly Trump put 100-200% tariffs on Indian solar panels. Its very easy and cheap to produce these outside China.
throw3433
Fossil fuels are also funding terrorism around the world. Getting rid of it is good for peace too
jfengel
It is remarkable the way fossil fuels often seem to be found in violent, barbarous places like Iran, Venezuela, and Texas.
cycomanic
We can thank the big oil and western governments for that. For years they have been working against stable democratic governments in these places, because it's easier to get cheap resources from corrupt governments than from stable democratic governments with functioning legal systems and limited corruption. It's something we can see all over the world, pretty much all resource rich countries in the world have been destabilised systematically.
apexalpha
This is 'survivor' bias, I think. Or some other fallacy.
Oil is found in a lot of regions but the non-violent ones were obviously exploited first. They are now just emptied out, like the North Sea in Europe.
chii
It's because the peaceful places where they're also found don't make the news.
cmrdporcupine
Terrorism and political disruption and chaos.
e.g. they've cultivated / funded and basically created a formerly extremely fringe "Alberta separatism" movement and are actively trying to disassemble the Canadian state. Things have gotten to the point that they're willing to light fires of instability right in the heart of the "stable" heartland of North America.
Formerly international capital benefited from stability. But the fossil fuel sector sees the writing on the wall and is trying to make as much hay while the sun shines as it can. They profit from the chaos, as we've seen from the last two months.
mcswell
Donald Trump: "Drill, baby, drill!"
American oil companies: "It doesn't pay, oil prices are too low to make drilling worth while."
Donald Trump: "War, baby, war!" (Oil prices go up)
The rest of the world: "Renewables!"
Five or ten years from now, when renewables have largely replaced oil, gas and coal in most of the world, the US will be the only major country still using fossil fuels. And the rest of the world will be better off; the US, not so much.
tim333
Sadly fossil fuel use still seems on an up trend https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-fossil-fuel-consum...
adrianN
I wish I shared your optimism, but for fossil fuels to become irrelevant in ten years we’d need to ban the sale of ICE cars and fossil heating today. Not to mention industrial uses of fossil fuels.
OutOfHere
Did horses need to be banned for them to become irrelevant? The next car I buy voluntarily won't be ICE.
Heating is slower to change, but new homes and buildings could come with solar walls and ceilings.
adrianN
No (I think?), but every ICE sold today will still be on the road in ten years. The average car in Germany is about nine years old for example. And the vast majority of new cars sold are still not electric. If you want the majority of the cars on the road be electric in ten years you really need to stop selling ICEs today.
iknowSFR
It’s no coincidence that everything from energy sources to civil rights to military strategy to trade policy struggle to evolve from the same era the US became a super power, 1945-1955. Its downfall is its nostalgia for that period.
JumpCrisscross
> evolve from the same era the US became a super power, 1945-1955. Its downfall is its nostalgia for that period
Four out of our last five Presidents were born within 4 years of each other [1]. Three (Bush Jr., Clinton and Trump) were born in 1946.
Good news: 2024 was probably the last election where Boomers’ vote share was above 25%. In 2028, a significant number of states, including California and Texas, will have fewer than 20% of votes cast by Boomers. (194 EVs in 2028 and, using 2020 Census numbers, a further 243 EVs in ‘32.)
[1] https://www.loriferber.com/amp/research/presidential-facts-s...
ninkendo
I’m not convinced the changing demographics are going to change much in the way of electoral outcomes. It could just as easily be that conservatism is just a function of age, and GenX-ers will be voting more or less the same as the boomers did.
I’d love to be proven wrong on this.
bluGill
The US is investing in renewables. The president doesn't have nearly as much power as he thinks to stop it. He can slow things down
gcanyon
This is exactly what I came to post. It's like Trump was designed in a lab to destroy the US :-(
Dumblydorr
He was a hand grenade of identity and economic grievance thrown into the glassware shop of the federal government. He slashed, burned, grifted, and shot a missile into an elementary school. The worst president in history?
Ylpertnodi
Vince may be.
throw3433
That could make plastics even more cheaper. We need to encourage bio degradables before that happens
firebot
Fossil fuels hopefully aren't going anywhere.
We should absolutely stop burning them, though.
For instance, modern medicine requires petroleum and there's no real alternatives at this time.
xeonmc
I like to cope optimistically that Trump is actually the God Emperor Leto II from Dune, the omniscient and visually hideous tyrant-messiah who is engineering the circumstances to “teach humanity a lesson they will remember in their bones”, and this is all his Golden Path to force humanity to grow wiser after his demise.
ModernMech
This is actually happening in a sense; because of Donald Trump, the entire world knows what it's like to live with an abusive narcissistic parent / partner now. Whether we get wise is yet to be seen.
dgellow
So far that has emboldened other abusive narcissistic “parents”, unfortunately
cabnm
It is very funny that Nord Stream had to be sabotaged while all the Nord Stream money was wasted (Russia had a weak army while the pipeline was operational).
Now we are supposed to buy solar panels from China while the US is depicting China as the greatest threat, senate hearings demand usage of US bases in Asia without the approval of the host countries and the US started the Iran war to maintain a blockade to control both the EU and China.
I wonder if Bilderberg group member Radoslav Sikorski will be gloating on Twitter when secondary sanctions will be imposed on the EU if they import Chinese solar panels.
dgellow
> the US started the Iran war to maintain a blockade to control both the EU and China
Where are you getting this from? That’s not even remotely close to my understanding of the situation
rasHjl
You won't find it in the mainstream press. This administration is about "pivoting to China" (i.e., controlling China more). Elbridge Colby, who is a main China hawk, is undersecretary of defense now.
Here is a write-up on the China part:
https://www.hudson.org/national-security-defense/iran-strike...
For broader geopolitical chess games the "Path to Persia" and "Extending Russia" papers are all time favorites.
The EU part isn't that explicit. It is a mixture of the US wanting to take the Greenland Arctic Sea route, sabotaging energy deliveries from Russia and making the EU dependent on US LNG. Now the EU is even more dependent on the US and there is no sign that the US wants Hormuz open. It is stalling, in my opinion deliberately.
amanaplanacanal
I think it's stalling because there is no support for the war in the US, and the political cost of actually opening the straight is higher than they are willing to pay. Notice the US is now declaring that the war is over, so they don't have to go justify it in Congress.
cmrdporcupine
It's clear the net effect is a subsidy to the North American hydrocarbon sector at the expense of Europe and China and India. Oil prices were falling, now they're not. Places like Alberta were going to run a deficit because oil prices were low. Now they're not. People were buying from the middle east. Now they're less-so.
Stated goals and whether this was accidental is a whole other question.
I'm not sure why people as a whole don't seem to have absorbed the fact that North America is an energy exporting economy now, not a net importer.
The question is whether North American consumers really like that they're paying so much more at the pump (and, shortly, for food prices) on account of oil executives making off like bandits.
dgellow
Ok, if we mean the effect I agree. But the parent was talking about intent, or at least that’s how I read it
Throaway199999
Hm...I don't think the blockade is long-term feasible, so Im not sure I buy the logic there.
latentframe
Seems to be an energy security trade, when oil goes up and geopolitics heats dependence gets priced again quickly
PearlRiver
The North Sea has given us free fish, trade with all corners of the world and now it's one giant windmill farm.
dgellow
Are you saying there is no trade anymore via the North Sea because of windmills?
soupspaces
[dead]
morpheos137
Funny, physics and economics don't just behave the way we want. The reason we use liquid and gaseous fossil fuels is not a cultural quirk but a function of energy density and fungibility. Each barell of crude pumped from the ground is a natural battery storing energy from hundreds, maybe thousands of years of biosolar collection millions of years ago. Until something is cheaper at scale and of comparable density there is no economic alternative to hydrocarbons. Maybe massive nuclear investment or ocean thermal extraction will be away out. Oil is literally solar power comprrssed in carbon hydrogen bonds and stored for aeons.
cmrdporcupine
All of this can be true and at the same time it's massively harmful to use.
It remains true that the actual total costs of using hydrocarbons are not factored into their actual real world market exchange rate. And every time we've made modest steps to try to make that happen (carbon taxes, regulation) the resistance has been swift and brutal.
morpheos137
I never said HC economy is not without externality. However I do believe forcing HC substitutes before nature (depletion) forces them may be a net utility loss. The evidence is very thin a little sea level rise and a little temperature rise is worse for humanity in net than losing tecnological society.
cmrdporcupine
They're not going to deplete, every time we make an estimate on that we just find more or more ways to extract. We just keep finding more. And if we did run out of oil and gas somehow, people with this mentality will just burn coal again.
Until there is a regulatory model which forces the externalities to be accounted for, it's just a race to the bottom.
Get the top HN stories in your inbox every day.
The biggest difference now is that the tech and scale are here now. The prices are dropping like a rock for grid storage, thanks to China. Sodium-ion battery production is being ramped up.
I honestly think renewables will grow exponentially from now all fosil fuel is dead.